Since the inauguration of the 8th National Assembly, things have fallen apart to the extent that it has been difficult for the Senate and the House of Representatives to settle down for business. In this piece, YUSUF ALLI, MANAGING EDITOR, NORTHERN OPERATION examines the multi-dimensional intrigues, its consequences and the ways out.
More than a month after its inauguration, the National Assembly has been wobbling because of the inability of the Senate and the House of Representatives to elect its principal officers in a peaceful, credible and transparent manner. Rather than settling down for business, the new leaders of both chambers have been performing Executive functions by entertaining courtesy calls, solidarity visits and globetrotting in search of legitimacy and acceptance by the public.
The implosion within the All Progressives Congress (APC) caucus in the two chambers has grounded legislative activities leading to an unnecessary and long recess to allow tempers to cool down. While Nigerians are looking forward to July 21 for the National Assembly to reconvene, the much-needed peace appeared not in sight as resumption from recess was shifted again to July 28.
According to a highly-placed source, the “postponement of resumption is to enable us calm frayed nerves and agree at amicable resolution of the issues at stake.”
There are four things in contention to redirect the APC in the National Assembly. These are: convincing the aggrieved Senators and House of Representatives members to accept the June 9 election of principal officers as a fait accompli; prevailing on the President of the Senate, Dr. Bukola Saraki and the Speaker of the House of Representatives, Yakubu Dogara to abide by the party’s decision on sharing of principal officers to accommodate Sen. Ahmed Lawan and Femi Gbajabiamila groups; coming up with political solutions which will reunite APC caucus in the National Assembly and ward of infiltration by the Peoples Democratic Party; restoration of party supremacy to enable the President focus on the CHANGE agenda
The demands
For Saraki and Dogara, they are savouring the moment because they have gone to the negotiation table from a position of strength having been elected or crowned as leaders of the Senate and the House. Even their mien had been suggestive of a pyrrhic victory. But the Lawan and Gbajabiamila groups, which are loaded with the intelligentsia and principled leaders, have risen above their ‘losses’ to insist on what is right and deference to the supremacy of the party.
All the actors had used the past three weeks to hold meetings with President Muhammadu Buhari, National Chairman of APC, Chief John Odigie-Oyegun, party leaders and elders, and the National Executive Committee. The crux of the matter is how to strike a deal between Saraki-Dogara alliance and the APC/ Lawan and Gbajabiamila groups on the demands of the latter.
The template for negotiation was set by the All Progressives Congress. The position of the leadership of the APC was contained in two separate letters to the President of the Senate, Dr. Bukola Saraki and the Speaker of the House of Representatives, Yakubu Dogara, by the National Chairman of the APC, Odigie-Oyegun . The June 23 letter to Saraki, referenced APC/NHDQ/NAM/01/015/05, said: “Please find below for your necessary action names of principal officers approved by the party, after extensive consultations for the 8th Senate as follows: Sen. Ahmed Lawan (Majority Leader)–North-East; Prof. Sola Adeyeye (Chief Whip)–South-West; Sen. George Akume (Deputy Majority Leader)—North-Central; and Sen. Abu Ibrahim (Deputy Chief Whip)—North-West.
A similar letter, APC/NHDQ/NAM/01/015/06, to the Speaker said: “Please find below for your necessary action: names of principal officers approved by the party after extensive consultations for the 8th House of Representatives as follows: Femi Gbajabiamila (House Leader)—-South-West; Alhassan Ado Doguwa (Deputy House Leader)—North-West; M. T. Monguno (Chief Whip)—North-East; and Pally Iriase (Deputy Chief Whip)—South-South. This comes with the assurances of my highest regards.”
Despite the template, Saraki with his Like Minds Senators went ahead to defy APC and selected its own principal officers:
In a July 1 session with President Muhammadu Buhari and Vice President Yemi Osinbajo, the Gbajabiamila group tabled its case and was unwavering in asking Dogara to respect the party’s wish.
It said: “On June 9, 2015, 174 APC members in the House faithfully and loyally followed the directives of the party to vote for Femi Gbajabiamila and Mongunu as Speaker and Deputy Speaker while 39 other APC members colluded with the opposition party, the PDP, to elect the current Speaker and Deputy Speaker with only eight votes superiority.
“The party directive was based on the mock primaries conducted for all aspirants to the two positions. Whereas the candidates of the majority (Gbajabiamila and Mongunu) openly congratulated the winners and continued to cooperate with them in the House, the opposition and the 39 APC members continued to hold the APC leadership in contempt. Whereas, we the 174 party faithful and loyalists had been obedient to the party, what shall be the reward of our loyalty to the party?
“The party has chosen not to punish the 39 APC members including the elected Speaker and Deputy Speaker, but chose to direct, as it is customary and conventional, on how the other four (4) principal officers should be distributed. Alas! The opposition and the 39 members continue to hold the ruling party in contempt by disobeying the party
“Whereas, the beneficiaries of the disobedience are citing Federal Character Principle as the main reason for their disobedience, His Excellency should note that (a) During the 6th Assembly (2007-2011), the following Officers were elected from the NORTH WEST: (I) The president and Commander in Chief, (ii) Ismaila Kawu and (III) Mutawalle–two occupied two out of the four principal officers positions of the Minority Party, (iv) Aminu Tambuwal was elected Deputy Chief Whip.
“(b)Also during the 7th Assembly, the following officers in Government were elected from the NORTH WEST: (I) The Vice President, (II) The Speaker, Aminu
Tambuwal, (III) Ismaila Kawu, Deputy Minority Leader, (IV) Garba Datti, Deputy Minority Whip. There was never an issue of Federal Character in these instances.
“It should be noted that the Federal Character principle as embedded in Chapter of the 1999 Constitution (as amended) IS NOT JUSTICIABLE AND OF NO LEGAL CONSEQUENCE. Its provision in S.14 of the Constitution is only applicable to appointments in Federal Ministries and Agencies. The House of Representatives is not an Agency of the Federal Government and the Principal officers positions are elective and not by appointment. If the federal character is applicable to the National Assembly, then both the Senate President and the Speaker cannot come from the North, one of them should be advised to step down.”
The Lawan group had also made presentations at separate meetings with the President and Oyegun alongside the Deputy National Chairman (North), Sen. Lawal Shuaib, the Deputy National Chairman (South), Segun Oni, and the National Secretary of APC, Mallam Mai Mala Buni.
According to findings, the meeting was able to chart a “way forward” on how to reunite all APC Senators in the 8th Senate.
At the end of the meeting, the Lawan group made the following demands:
o APC leadership should instil discipline and intervene in the choice of some principal officers in the Senate.
o It is better to leave the choice of some principal officers to APC than zonal caucuses in order not to further divide the governing party
o Ranking must be considered in the selection of principal officers.
o Concession of some principal offices to the Unity Forum including Ahmed Lawan (Majority Leader); George Akume (Deputy Majority Leader); Prof. Sola Adeyeye (Senate Whip); and Abu Ibrahim(Deputy Whip).
o Reconciliation is possible if Saraki group does not play the politics of winner- takes- all
o PDP should not be allowed to produce any principal officer except those due to it as the minority party in the Senate
The negotiation so far
When the hostility was intense, the APC called a meeting of the National Executive Committee meeting to douse the tension, despite higher expectations, the session could only attract a commitment to party supremacy from all leaders (including Saraki, Dogara, Lawan and Gbajabiamila) and groups; a pledge to work for peace and success of APC administration; and it acceded to the request of the APC governors to wade in the crisis. The governors have set up two committees including Aminu Tambuwal Panel to resolve the crisis of confidence in the House and Governors Atiku Bagudu andAdams Oshiomhole Intervention Committee for the Senate.
A source, privy to the activities of the two committees, said: “The two committees have met only once with all the gladiators before the National Assembly went on recess. The key actors presented their terms for peace.
“I think the committees will use the next one week to allow the key actors to negotiate and agree on some terms. The pressure is on Saraki and Dogara to demonstrate their loyalty to the party by accommodating the aggrieved.”
So far, only Dogara appears to have come up with a variant of the party’s advice. He has partially accepted to accommodate the Gbajabiamila group but he tactically rejected the party’s nominees. Out of the four principal offices, Dogara only conceded two to the Gbajabiamila group, including House Leader and Chief Whip.
In a July 16 letter to Oyegun, Dogara, who hid under Federal Character Principle after emerging as the Speaker said: “Consequently sir, we propose the following zoning arrangement for the distribution of principal offices in the House of Representatives. Speaker-Yakubu Dogara (North-East); Deputy Speaker, Yusuf Sulaimon Lasun (South-West); House Leader (North-West); Deputy House Leader (North-Central); Chief Whip (South-South) and Deputy Chief Whip (South-East).
“Above proposal satisfies the provisions of Order 1 of our Rules and Constitutional provision on Federal Character and gives all parts of Nigeria a sense of belonging. The proposal will also obviate all pending court cases filed by some zonal caucuses on the matter.
“To resolve this problem, we had offered that some of the aggrieved members of our party (APC) who lost the election for the office of the Presiding Officers should produce some of the remaining Principal Officers for peace to reign. For emphasis, we have conceded the position of the Leader of the House and Chief Whip to those aggrieved as long as the persons do not come from the North-East or South-West zones that have already produced the Speaker and Deputy Speaker.
“In any case sir, I pledge as the Speaker of the House, to accommodate other colleagues of ours in the party list, who may not be taken care of by this arrangement, with other commensurate appointments or other existing opportunities for service to the nation.
“We owe a duty to lay the truth bare as we have done in this case. The party in conjunction with governors, national leaders and the APC caucuses in the House may agree otherwise as the saying goes: ‘volenti non fit injuria’. Our party must not have the undistinguished honour of setting a precedent outside of the provisions of the constitution and the Rules of the House.”
Investigation revealed that Saraki has not made any substantial concession other than the outstanding office of the Chief Whip which is yet to be filled. With benefit of hindsight of a list coming from the party, Saraki played a fast one by filling some principal offices in order to have an excuse that event has overtaken the party’s advisory. The power sharing formula so far in the Senate is as follows: President of the Senate, Saraki (North-Central); Senate Leader, Ali Ndume (North-East); Deputy Senate Leader, Bala Ibn Na’Allah (North-West); and Deputy Chief Whip, Francis Ailimikhena (South-South). A reliable stakeholder said: “Saraki’s body language has indicated that he will not empower Lawan and Akume because they are capable of a political rebound which can undermine his Senate Presidency. He is also looking at the bigger picture of the politics in APC. He knows that party leaders, who are backing Lawan and Akume, can spring a surprise any time.
“I think the Like Minds will only concede the Chief Whip and some juicy committees to Lawan and Akume in the Unity Forum if only they will be loyal to his leadership. The same Saraki is in league with the leaders of the New PDP in APC to influence Dogara not to shift ground.”
The main setbacks for negotiation
The battle ahead is still complicated with each of the warring groups engaging in subtle underground war. For instance, the pro-Dogara loyalists have not withdrawn the suit against Gbajabiamila’s eligibility in a court in Abuja because of the fears of a likely political resurgence if it becomes imperative to remove Dogara. Certainly the Gbajabiamila group is unhappy that those backing Dogara could move to tarnish its arrowhead’s image. This is a thaw in the ongoing negotiation.
In the Senate, the Like Minds is unforgiving of the decision of the Unity Forum to write a petition to the Inspector-General of Police on the purported forgery of the Senate Standing Orders 2015 (as Amended). The implication of the Deputy President of the Senate, Chief Ike Ekweremadu created an upset in the Senate and it has changed reconciliation equation with the Unity Forum. The outcome of the police investigation will determine many things in the Senate.
Another setback is the involvement of Governor Aminu Tambuwal in the reconciliation process. As a leader, who was neck-deep in supporting Dogara, he needs more reconciliation than some of the key actors in the National Assembly drama.
Options available to Saraki, Lawan, Dogara and Gbajabiamila
While it is difficult, remote and impossible to conduct a fresh election of principal officers in the two chambers, the conspiracy of June 9 will continue to haunt the 8th National Assembly. But findings revealed that there are four options out of the woods. Ironically, each of the options has its cost. These include abiding by the party’s directive, adopting a winner-takes-all strategy as presently the case by Saraki and Dogara, working out a political solution in the interim to share offices and committees before adjustment later and leaving the National Assembly perpetually on the edge to pave the way for musical chair in both chambers.
Abiding by the party’s directive
Although the APC is being turned into a toothless bulldog by the camps of Saraki and Dogara by ignoring its advice on sharing of principal officers, it will pay the two groups to have some modicum of respect for party supremacy. Shunning the party will amount to destroying the platform with which they won election into the National Assembly. If they have their way, they may not have the last laugh in any party they may belong to realize their aspirations in 2019, even after the looming realignment of forces. Their future political alliance partners will henceforth be more circumspect in dealing with them. Dogara was quick to realize this when he hid under the Principle of Federal Character in the constitution to produce a variant of party’s directive for peace to reign. It was a partial compliance with the party’s directive after much pressure. The ball is however in Saraki’s court whose only concession might be zoning the Chief Whip to Prof. Sola Adeyeye in Lawan’s group of Unity Forum. He finds it difficult to ask Senator Ali Ndume (Senate Leader) and other Principal Officers to step down because he has boxed himself into a corner with all manner of concessions and platitudes to get the coveted seat. As a politician with his eyes on 2019 presidency, he feels obliged to honour these subterranean and conspiratorial agreements at the expense of the APC because it is about his personal aspiration in the future. The alliance between Saraki and the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) has also made him to be on a tight rope. If Saraki listens to APC and sacrifices the Deputy President of the Senate, Chief Ike Ekweremadu, who is more adept in diplomatic and concession politics, he will lose his much-cherished Senate Presidency. He has to run a pliant administration for both APC and PDP members in the Senate.
But as 2019 approaches, the PDP may also bare its fangs and clip the wings of Saraki by conspiring with APC Senators to remove him from office to checkmate his presidential ambition. Overall, respecting APC’s directive will give Saraki more respite than the marriage of inconvenience with PDP.
Adopting a winner-takes-all strategy
This is an option with many consequences for Saraki and Dogara and the ultimate will be about presiding over a divided National Assembly. Senators and Reps will develop hyena relationship, conduct legislative business with mutual suspicion, disrupt sessions, frustrate bills and they may end up with less than 30 to 40 per cent performance. At the end of the day, the APC’s Change Agenda might not be realized and the masses will be worse off. For Dogara with a victory of eight votes over Femi Gbajabiamila, he will be in a tinder box without enjoying every minute of his tenure. The winner-takes-all attitude may also pitch the presidency against the National Assembly leaders because it will confirm intelligence report that some forces, who have an axe to grind with President Muhammadu Buhari, bankrolled Saraki and Dogara’s election. The body language of the President has suggested that he is unhappy with Saraki.
At the Eid-el Fitr prayer in Abuja on Friday, while Saraki was adjusting his Alkimba (Special robe) to pose for photo shots with President Buhari, the latter remained unsmiling. No Senate President or the Speaker of the House of Representatives had successfully, since 1999, fought a sitting Nigerian President and had his cake and ate it. The Senior Special Assistant to the President on Media and Publicity, Mallam Garba Shehu, spoke Buhari’s mind when he said: “As a leader, the President has given guidance… His own position is that if the eye troubles you, whatever medicine you are going to apply, don’t put a pin.”
Leaving the National Assembly on the edge
If Saraki and Dogara brave the odds and damn the consequences of Lawan and Gbajabiamila’s groups, the 8th National Assembly will perpetually be under tension because the power equation can change at any time. To survive, Saraki and Dogara will spend a greater time in office appeasing one group or the other; making ridiculous concessions to different caucuses to stay afloat or they may be preoccupied with launching counter-plots against “political enemies.” Apart from overstretching their personal and official resources, their desperation for survival might lead to high-handedness including reaching the temperamental stage of suspending some Senators and Representatives from the chambers.
Still revelling in their victory, Saraki and Dogara are confident that their removal from office is more difficult than their subterfuge election in the light of the provision of Section 50(2) (c) of the 1999 Constitution. The section says: “The President or Deputy President of the Senate or the Speaker or Deputy Speaker of the House of Representatives shall vacate his office…if removed from office by a resolution of the Senate or of the House of Representatives, as the case may be, by the votes of not less than two thirds majority of the members of that House.” But the scenarios in the National Assembly between 1999 and 2003, which led to the emergence of four Senate Presidents and two Speakers have proved their assumption wrong because power game in the legislature is a “slippery” thing. Once either the President of the Senate or the Speaker steps on the famous banana peel, getting two thirds is always easy.
A high-ranking Senator said: “The Senate and the House of Representatives will certainly witness musical chair and we may end up changing our leaders two or three times before the expiration of the 8th National Assembly.
“The way things are going now, I don’t see the present leadership surviving the next two years unless Saraki and Dogara lower their gaiety and draw substantially from the survival magic of ex-President of the Senate, Chief David Mark, who was extremely humble with power.
“Look at how an attempt by Dogara to please a member of the House has backfired. He chartered a jet to go to Delta State and it has become a moral issue. Many faltering steps like this will arise in both chambers and such slips can lead to the change of guards.
“Money is a key weapon for retaining the loyalty of members of the National Assembly. These members used to ask for one allowance or the other and with a budget cut from N150billion to N120billion, there will be some belt-tightening which might not go down well with Senators and Representatives. They will become restive. The alternative is to abuse the oversight powers of the Senate and the House to hold MDAs to ransom for cash. The attendant scandal from oversight functions may prove fatal for the new leadership in the National Assembly.
It was also learnt that from the way Dogara is conducting his affairs, he is tied to the apron string of Saraki in deference to the alliance which brought the two leaders to power. He seems to draw confidence from Saraki because each time he agreed to some peace terms in the closet; he reneges in the open due to the fear of backlash. Members of the House might not tolerate Dogara’s servitude to Saraki for long because since 1999, the House of Representatives had always charted a vibrant and independent-minded attitude in contrast to the Senate’s docility. If Dogara does not sustain the template of House vibrancy and radicalism, he will be shoved aside by his colleagues.
What alternatives for Lawan, Akume and Gbajabiamila?
Certainly, there are four options available to Lawan, Akume and Gbajabiamila. These staying out of politics of Principal Offices in the Senate and House of Representatives because Saraki and Dogara will deliberately scheme them out; going back to the trenches to re-strategize to pave way for a speedy political recovery; accepting any token concessions from Saraki and Dogara as sacrifices for the overall survival of the 8th National Assembly; and allowing Saraki and Dogara to burn their political fingers. Since they enjoy the backing of President Muhammadu Buhari and the APC tomorrow is another day.
Which way out?
A disturbed President Muhammadu only succeeded in pricking the conscience of APC leaders at the maiden meeting of the National Executive Committee (NEC) of the party. Buhari said, “Let us as members of the APC, no matter our personal differences get together and use the mandate given to us by this country. This is my personal appeal to you in the name of God. Whatever your personal interest or ambition is, please keep it close to your heart and in your pocket.”
But he needs to initiate an enlarged reconciliation process to reunite party leaders like Asiwaju Bola Tinubu, ex-VP Atiku Abubakar, Chief Bisi Akande, Abubakar Kawu Baraje, former governors in New PDP who crossed over, and all members of the coalition which formed the APC. The APC leaders must return to the starting block for everything to come back to shape. It is a Herculean task but doable. Or else, the Cold War may persist in the party till 2019.
